The West African subcontinent has witnessed a precarious wave of democratic setbacks in recent years owing to the spate of military coups, protests, violent conflicts and political instability that has permeated the subregion. Quite notably, five West African countries (Mali, Niger, Guinea, Burkina Faso, and Guinea-Bissau) have experienced one or more military coups since 2020, with five of these coups resulting in unconstitutional changes in government. There have been mass protests in Nigeria, Senegal and Ghana against police brutality, human rights violations, and rising cost of living. Similarly, the introduction of a new constitution in Cote d’Ivoire paved the way for President Alassane Ouattara to seek a controversial third term. All these point to the vulnerable state of democracy in the subregion, despite gains recorded by ECOWAS in promoting democracy in West Africa.
Against this backdrop, the 2023 general elections in Nigeria became a centre of attraction as it presented an opportunity for reinforcing democratic ideals in Africa’s most populous country. Importantly, Nigeria´s crucial role in shaping the political landscape of Africa, which is increasingly turning towards autocracy, makes the conduct of the 2023 general elections in the country one of keen concern. The 2023 general elections in Nigeria were conducted in three phases: the presidential and national assembly elections, which took place on February 25, 2023; the gubernatorial and state assembly elections, conducted on March 18, 2023; and supplementary elections held on April 16, 2023.
The February presidential election produced Bola Tinubu, the candidate of the ruling party, as the winner, having secured 36.6% of the total votes cast. Tinubu’s closest rivals, Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, scored 29.1% and 25.4% respectively. The declaration of Bola Tinubu as the winner and President-elect has received mixed reactions from Nigerians who continue to express differentiated opinions on the outcome of the election. However, beyond the reactions, what are the gains and drawbacks of the recently concluded elections and what implications do they have for the future of democracy in West Africa?
Some Major Gains
Compared to previous elections, there were significant improvements in the overall conduct of the 2023 general elections in Nigeria. The timely passage of the 2022 Electoral Act gave the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) ample time to fix election dates and proceed with other vital pre-election preparations. As a result, INEC was able to hold the presidential election as scheduled without any postponement, unlike 2011, 2015 and 2019 presidential elections. Similarly, the build-up to the 2023 general elections saw an increase in voter registration as well as the involvement of youths in the electoral process both as registered voters and more importantly as candidates.
In what can be described as a significant milestone in the drive towards political inclusion of youths and women, the 2023 general elections saw a number of young Nigerians elected into public offices at both federal and state levels. For instance, at the federal level, 29-year-old Akarachi Amadi (male) was elected into the Federal House of Assembly. At the state level, Rukayat Shittu (female), Rasheed Kashamu (male), and Muhammad Oyanki (male) all three being 26-year-old, were elected into Kwara State House of Assembly, Ogun State House of Assembly and Nasarawa State House of Assembly respectively. The influx of youths into various legislative houses in Nigeria is rather instructive given that about 70% of Nigeria´s population is made up of youths under 30, while the country’s median age is 15. Thus, the active involvement of youths in politics is no doubt a welcome development.
Another important milestone that was evident in the overall conduct of the election is that the electoral outcome largely represents the people’s choice. In other words, despite the pockets of malpractices recorded in a handful of polling units, the overall outcome was largely credible. This can be easily observed by examining the outcome of the presidential election and further comparing the results with the gubernatorial elections. To provide some background, Nigeria returned to democracy in 1999 and up until 2015, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) held sway in the country´s federal elections. However, a merger of three main opposition parties in 2013 led to the emergence of the All Progressives Congress (APC), which ultimately altered the landscape of elections in Nigeria. Since 2015, Nigeria’s electoral politics has been dominated by two political parties, APC and PDP. However, the 2023 presidential election saw lesser-known parties like the Labour Party (LP) and the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) make their mark on the landscape of presidential elections in the country. Out of the 36 states and Federal Capital Territory (FCT), LP went on to win 12 states (one of which is the home base of the winner of the presidential election), while NNPP was able to win a state.
Compared to previous elections, the 2023 presidential election was quite difficult to predict. There were unprecedented upsets and a number of instances in which politicians (including incumbents) lost in places that were supposed to be their strongholds. Also, thanks to the use of technology, particularly the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS), issues of overvoting were significantly reduced and the majority of the polling numbers were that of actual voters. Put together, these are clear indications that the 2023 general elections were to a significant extent a reflection of the will of the Nigerian people.
Some Major Drawbacks
Despite the gains recorded in the overall conduct of the 2023 general elections in Nigeria, a couple of major drawbacks can be highlighted. Topping the list is the issue of electoral malpractice, including, voter intimidation, vote buying, electoral violence and other forms of malpractices, which unfortunately characterised the conduct of the election in a handful of polling units across the country. It is important to note that compared to previous elections, some of which were marred by violence during and after the election, the 2023 elections were largely peaceful as evident in the reports of observer groups such as the Commonwealth Observer Group. Thus, while electoral violence of any kind is condemnable, the aggregate progress made in curtailing them is noteworthy.
Another major drawback in the 2023 general elections is the worsening challenge of low voter turnout. Voter turnout has been on a sharp decline since Nigeria overhauled its voter register in 2011 with the country recording turnouts of 53.7% in 2011, 43.7% in 2015, 34.8% in 2019 and a meagre 29% in 2023. Various factors can be said to be responsible for the disappointing voter turnout. These include the prevailing socio-economic situation in the country during the election, particularly cash shortage and fuel scarcity; insufficient voter education on the part of INEC, civil societies and other relevant stakeholders; late arrival of election materials in some polling units; and prevailing insecurity in parts of the country, among others. Put together, these factors can be said to have encouraged voter apathy.
Furthermore, challenges in logistics and deployment of technology were major drawbacks in the elections. There were reports of delays in the arrival of INEC officials and election materials, which hampered the timely conduct of the presidential election in several polling units. Similarly, the failure of INEC to upload many of the results of the presidential election to the INEC Result Viewing Portal (IReV) directly from the polling units, which it claimed was due to technical challenges, created a shroud of controversy around the conduct of the presidential election. Lastly, it is worth mentioning that the rancorous role played by religion and ethnicity equally constitute major drawbacks in Nigeria´s electoral politics.
Implications For the Future of Democracy in West Africa
While the 2023 general elections in Nigeria may not have met the high expectations of several voters, observers and analysts, it is comparatively better than previous elections conducted in the country since its return to democracy in 1999. Through their conduct before, during and after the general elections, Nigerians have demonstrated their commitment to upholding democratic values and practices as the ideals through which the country must be governed. Despite the handful of drawbacks previously mentioned, the 2023 general election is a testament to democratic progress in Nigeria, which in time, would ultimately translate to economic and developmental gains for the country and the rest of Africa at large.
Moving forward much needs to be done to consolidate the gains of the 2023 general elections in Nigeria, while equally addressing its major drawbacks. Subsequent amendments to Nigeria’s electoral laws should take on critical issues relating to electoral malpractices. There have already been calls from INEC and legal experts for the creation of an electoral offences commission as well as an electoral offences tribunal to specifically deal with investigating and prosecuting irregularities that tend to occur during elections. Given Nigeria´s long struggle with electoral offences, the Nigerian National Assembly needs to give these suggestions a more critical examination.
Without a doubt, the 2023 general election in Nigeria is a step forward for democracy in West Africa. It is a sign of a deepening of democracy in Africa’s largest economy, which can be expected to spill over to neighbouring West African countries and perhaps the entire African continent.
The write-up captures the very expected aspects of the whole exercise. It is a holistic assesment, backs and fronts; the good, the bad and the Ugly.
No doubt, the analysis given by the writer (Lanre) would definitely help researchers in social sciences and beyond when putting in white and black to build up on body of knowledge.